【校稿】第十九篇 Design of Experiments/Conjoint Analysis in Marketing
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**本文由yzz完成翻译：
第十九篇 Design of Experiments/Conjoint Analysis in Marketing
试验设计/市场综合分析
DOE, known in marketing as conjoint analysis, is a powerful statistical technique for seeing connections between a customer's decision-making process and a product or service. It allows a company insight into what a customer is influenced to buy. 众所周知， DOE是市场营销综合分析方面一个强大的统计技术，用于分析顾客决策过程和产品或服务之间的联系。借此深入了解客户，影响其购买。
By Alastair Muir 阿尔斯太尔
The application of Six Sigma to marketing should be the most obvious use in the world. Where else does there exist such a direct connection between the wants and needs of the customer and the products or services a company offers? However, at first glance, there would seem to be very little hard reliable data on the vital Xs that influence the process of making a decision to buy. This makes it appear that marketing projects, while good for the business, lack the statistical rigor associated with Six Sigma.
在世界上，六西格码应用到营销方面起到的作用是显而易见的。难道还有能够提供顾客需要需求和客户提供产品或服务之间的联系的公司吗?然而,乍一看,似乎没有什么可靠的数据明显地影响到客户的决定并购买。市场项目体现出，表面上生意兴隆,可缺少准确的6σ统计。
Of course, that is not true. Design of experiments (DOE), known in marketing literature as conjoint analysis, is the most powerful statistical technique for making the connection between the psychology of the customer's decision-making process and the product or service being offered. When applied well, it can allow a company to gain an almost psychic insight into the vital Xs influencing a customer's buying decision.
当然,那不是实际情况。试验设计（DOE）是市场营销综合分析方面一个强大的统计技术，用于分析顾客决策过程和产品或服务之间的联系。应用得当,公司会获得显著影响顾客购买的深层想法。
Marketing Problems
市场营销问题
In the end, the goal of marketing is to be able to predict the future market share, profitability or net sales for an offering. This will allow a company to:
最后,营销的目标是能预测并提供未来市场占有率、盈利或净销售额。这将有助于公司做到以下几点:
•Predict customer buying behavior
预测顾客的购买行为
•Increase customer retention
增加保留老顾客
•Determine the trade-off strategy during contract negotiations
在合同谈判中，确定销售策略
•Determine competitive pricing
制定有竞争力的价格
•Forecast sales
预测销售
•Manage brand equity
提升品牌价值
•Design product elements
得到产品设计基础
•Determine price sensitivity
确定价格敏感度
•Predict and minimize customer switch rates
预测并最大限度降低客户的换货率
•Determine best market position for new product introduction
确定推出新产品最佳的市场定位
•Predict and optimize response rates to advertising campaigns with respect to content construction and distribution channel mix.
预测并优化广告效果，如广告内容,综合销售渠道。
Figure 1: Relationship Between Xs, Ys and Customer's Decision
The Big Y and Unknown Xs
During the decision-making process, the customer will choose either to accept or reject a company's offering. There needs to be a way of determining the relationship between the factors in the customer's head and the final decision. It is a bit difficult because the customer will usually be unaware of the complex psychological processes going on behind their own decision-making process. An acceptable fallback position is to develop a predictive model involving observable characteristics of the offering (Figure 1
顾客在决策的过程中,要么接受公司产品，要么拒绝。我们需要想方设法确定顾客在开始的想法和最后决定之间的关系。这可能有点难度,因为顾客在后来的决定过程中心理过程错综复杂，也不容易被扑捉到。一个可靠的方案是开发一种预测模型，使顾客想法可视化(图1
Businesses frequently make the mistake of assuming that customers make decisions based on the same criteria that they usually do - cost. Customers make decisions based on value - a complex interplay of sociological and psychological factors. As an example, would someone consider paying an extra $10 per month in taxes to support a youth-oriented, non-profit recycling program in their neighborhood? Clearly, the most cost-effective solution would be to reject the tax, but a person might consider paying for a variety of reasons. This separation of critical-to-quality elements (CTQs) for the internal customer (cost) and external customer (value) will allow a company to determine the best offering to optimize both CTQs at the same time.
企业经常错误地认为顾客所作的决定的因素是价格,都像他们平常表现出来的那样。顾客的决定,都基于价值观- - -一个错综复杂的社会学和心理因素。举一个例子,有人愿意额外支付的10美元,以支持在他们社区建立一个每月面向年轻人的非营利性的物品回收计划吗?显然,最简单的答案是拒绝,但一个人可能会有各种各样的理由去做。这种将品质关键点(CTQs)分为内部客户(成本)和外部客户(价值)将让公司同时使内外顾客最大程度满意。
Six Sigma projects usually concentrate on only a single Y to simplify the analysis. Even though there is a complex mapping of Xs to Ys in the mind of the customer, here the focus will be on the single Y of the yes-or-no decision. This discrete measurement is not as useful as a quantitative measure, so data will be gathered to drive into the multiple Ys in the customer's head by asking them to make decisions given some carefully constructed choices. When this is done well, it will allow the derivation of a predictive model for the decision process.
六西格玛项目通常专注于只有一个输出的独立分析。虽然顾客从想法到决定是一个复杂的思维过程,答案归结为yes或no。定性评价不如定量评价,所以通过给他们一些详细的系统选择题，来了解他们内心的各种想法，并收集这些资料。这些做好后,就建立了一个决策过程的预测模型。
Rating Factors in Decision Making
Customers are poor at determining ratings on an absolute scale, but very good at making ratings based on a relative scale. When citizens in the recycling example above considered paying a $10 tax for a recycling program, they made the final choice based on a complex weighting of their present taxes, their finances, whether there were employment opportunities for youth in their community, their own position on reduction of household waste, and their social conscience. They balanced these factors against their confidence that $10 per month could be used to implement a workable program in their neighborhood. This was done in light of existing initiatives for youth employment and garbage collection. A customer's decision to accept or reject an offering is done in a similar complex and poorly understood process.
客户不善于定量评价,但非常善于模糊评价。在上面例子中，当市民在最后决定为废品回收支付10美元时会认真考虑，他们目前的收入和经济情况, 在他们的社区是否有青年就业机会,他们对减少家庭废弃物的态度和社会责任感。这些因素将左右他们的态度，每月10美金花在了一项他们社区的可行的计划。这是只为青年就业和垃圾回收的精心方案。一个顾客的接受与否是一个类似的复杂且未知的过程。
The conjoint study or DOE is conducted in stages similar to the phases of a DMAIC project. The final design and execution of the study depends on the stimulus construction, data collection, model type, measurement scale, statistical data analysis and model construction, and stimulus analysis. The example below is a fairly simple one to determine the value customers will assign to the functions of a cellular phone.
DOE综合研究在DMAIC项目中发挥着类似的作用。DMAIC阶段最终的设计和完成的各项研究取决于刺激措施的建设,数据收集模型、类型、测量精度,统计数据分析和模型分析,激励分析。下面的例子是一个相当简单,客户价值观体现到手机的功能上。
The marketing department's mission is to design a product placement for cell phone packages targeted at high school students nearing graduation. Consumers would like to have a package with the best value, the marketing department would like to design an advertising campaign which will convince consumers that the product will satisfy their needs. To keep this example simple, assume the customer base is a single, homogeneous group with a survey sample size of three, the design of the survey will have four factors at two levels each, and the design will have two replicates.
营销销部门的任务是设计一个手机软件包，客户定位为即将毕业高中学生。客户想要一个最好的软件包，市场部想设计一个广告宣传活动，让客户相信这个产品能满足他们的需求。例子简单化,假设客户群是唯一的，每组样本容量为3, 调查的项目将有四个因子，两种水平,重复两次。
Brainstorming Xs and Choosing Factor Levels
The selection of the Xs for this study can proceed using the brainstorming tools used in the DMAIC's Measure phase. Fishbone diagrams can be used to tabulate all the possible factors that the marketing department would like to investigate. The "effect" in the fishbone diagram should be "a buying decision." The project could be scoped to include the features of the offering or expanded to include elements of the form of the presentation. The number of factors should be limited to about a dozen. This can be done by rescoping the project, or conducting a short customer survey to determine the most important factors in making a buying decision. Xs
头脑风暴法讨论确定关键特性及其因子水平
在这一研究中可以用DMAIC的测量阶段中使用的头脑风暴法选定关键特性。用鱼骨图罗列出市场部要调研的所有可能项目。做鱼骨图的目的是“购买决定”。以此选中特性及其延伸特性。特性因子数量一般控制到十二个。可以通过这个过程圈定,或进行简单的顾客调查确定做出购买决定的最重要因素。
The levels used for each factor should be chosen to cover the range of realistic choices. The number of factors could be extended and the size of the study increased, but in this example only four will be used. The factors and levels are shown in Table
选择每一个因子水平的范围要符合实际。因子数量可以增大，研究范围可以增加,但下面这个例子只用了四个因子。因子及水平如表1所示。
Table 1: Factors and Levels
Factor High Low
Hardware Discount $150 with Three-Year Contract $100 with Two-Year Contract
Call Display None $5 per Month
Text Messaging 15 Cents per Message $10 per Month Unlimited
Multimedia Charges Five Free Mutimedia Attachments per Month,
75 Cents Thereafter 50-Cent Charge per Attachment
表1 因子及水平
因子 高 低
硬件折扣 约定三年150美元 约定两年100美元
来电显示 没有 每月5美元
短信 每条信息15美分 每月10美元,无上限
多媒体费用 每月5个免费的多媒体功能附件,
超过按 75美分 每个附件50美分
Collecting Data Via Card Sorting
通过整理评分卡收集数据
Customers must rate the features in some way. In this case, eight cards were constructed with lists of multiple configurations of options on each. The design was a Resolution IV, four-factor DOE with six replicates. The cards were given to customers and they were asked to sort them in decreasing order of preference. The highest-rated choice was assigned 1, while the lowest-rated choice was assigned 8 (Table 2 Customers could have been asked to rate each offering on a 10-point scale, but sorting the cards forces the customer to make complex tradeoffs and eliminates a large number of ties. The forced ranking from 1 to 8 increases the discrimination of the measurement. Each customer was asked to repeat the card sort. Data was entered into the worksheet of a statistical software application for analysis (Minitab, in this case
客户必须通过某种方式认定特性重要性。如此建立8张卡片，每张卡片列出是多种配置选项。设计方案是四个方面、重复六次。卡片发给顾客,他们按喜爱程度分类依次填写。评价最高的项目为1，评价最低的为8 (表2是要求用户按10级评价每个项目, 客户卡片分类并进行综合权衡以消除了诸多影响因素。强职从1排到8提高辨别率。要求每个客户重复填写这张排序卡片。数据填入Minitab工作表进行统计分析(如下)
Table 2: Configurations and Multiple Ratings
Configuration Hardware
Discount Call
Display Text
Messaging Multimedia
Attachments Rating
Terry Rating
Kim Rating
Pat
1 $150 with 3-Year Contract None 15c/Message 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 5, 5 6, 5 5, 6
2 $100 with 2-Year Contract None 15c/Message 50c/Attachment 6, 7 3, 6 6, 4
3 $150 with 3-Year Contract $5/Month 15c/Message 50c/Attachment 2, 4 2, 2 1, 1
4 $100 with 2-Year Contract $5/Month 15c/Message 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 1, 3 4, 1 2, 2
5 $150 with 3-Year Contract None $10/Month Unlimited 50c/Attachment 8, 6 8, 8 7, 7
6 $100 with 2-Year Contract None $10/Month Unlimited 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 7, 8 7, 7 8, 8
7 $150 with 3-Year Contract $5/Month $10/Month Unlimited 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 3, 1 1, 3 3, 3
8 $100 with 2-Year Contract $5/Month $10/Month Unlimited 50c/Attachment 4, 2 5, 4 4, 5
表2:配置和多重评价
配置 硬件折扣 来电显示 文字短信 多媒体附件 Terry等级 Kim等级 Pat等级
1 约定三年150美元 没有 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 5, 5 6, 5 5, 6
2 约定两年100美元 没有 15美分/条 50美分/个 6, 7 3, 6 6, 4
3 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 50美分/个 2, 4 2, 2 1, 1
4 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 1, 3 4, 1 2, 2
5 约定三年150美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 8, 6 8, 8 7, 7
6 约定两年100美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 7, 8 7, 7 8, 8
7 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 3, 1 1, 3 3, 3
8 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 4, 2 5, 4 4, 5
Figure 2: Statistical Software Printout
Figure 3: Pareto Chart of the Standardized Effects
Analyzing Data/Interpreting Results
The analysis of variance (ANOVA) printout from Minitab (Figure 2) shows that this sample of customers would prefer to pay an extra $15 for call display and unlimited text messaging. A model using only these two factors explains about 80 percent of the variation in the survey data (Figure 3
数据分析/结果说明
从Minitab打印输出方差分析(ANOVA) (图2)表明,该款手机的消费者将更愿意花15美元用于额外来电显示和无限的短信。这两个因子的模型解释, 只使用了问卷调查中大约80%的数据, (图3
The sample was composed of customers whose cell phone was their primary telephone and was always turned on. When the analysis was finished, the customers who took the survey were interviewed, resulting in the following findings:
客户的电话样品都是他们的日用电话,并且一直开机。当分析完成,询问了参加调查的顾客,发现以下情况:
•Call display (the highest-rated factor) was important in order to screen calls.
来电显示(得分最高的的因素)是很重要的,可以用来屏蔽来电。
•Text messaging was used in very noisy and in very quiet environments. These were usually dark places, requiring a well-lit, visible display.
在非常吵闹或非常安静的环境下发短信。这些通常是黑暗的地方,需要充足的亮度、能够看得见。
•The customers' usage patterns required a large number of messages and they were interested in a fixed cost for budgeting.
客户使用过程中需要大量的信息，并且他们更倾向于固定的费用预算。
•The interaction effect between hardware discount and multimedia charges was not significant. But the user group said their choice for multimedia plan option depended on the choice of cell phone hardware.
硬件折扣和多媒体之间的相互作用并不显著。但客户群说他们靠手机硬件选择多媒体功能。
•Users were more likely to incur extra charges associated with sending photographs and multimedia attachments when they considered buying a more expensive phone.
用户想买一部比较贵的电话,他们发送照片和使用多媒体等更容易产生额外费用。
•The more expensive phones were more attractive with the $150 discount.
比较昂贵的手机折扣150美元都更有吸引力。
•A selling opportunity for voice mail was identified.
识别出声音邮件是一个销售机遇。
Conclusions: Powerful Tool for Predicting Behavior
结论: 有效的预测工具
It was interesting that the survey provided insight into the customer behavior without having to ask detailed questions on features, usage patterns and usage types. It is a far more reliable and powerful technique than typical voice of the customer surveys. Conducting the survey took less than 30 seconds per trial.
有意思的是,这种调查能够用一定的方法和模式探索顾客的购买行为，无需询问细节。这是一个比传统的顾客需求调查更加可靠、更加有力的调查技术。整个调查不足30秒。
This is a fairly simple example, but it should illustrate the merits of further investigating the applications of DOE/conjoint analysis for Six Sigma projects in marketing. A quantitative predictive model that captures the customer decision-making process is a powerful marketing tool for predicting customer behavior.
这是一个很简单的例子,但它应该说明的优点等方面的应用进行深入的调查分析,DOE /密切联系销售中的六西格玛项目。抓住顾客的决策过程,定量预测模型,是一个预测客户的行为功能强大的营销工具。
Additional Resources Additional Resources
其他信息
•"VOC/Conjoint Analysis: Actionable Customer Segmenting" by Marco Folpmers
“顾客之声/综合分析:市场细分可行性“ Marco•Folpmers
•"Conjoint Analysis Tutorial" by Scott M. Smith
“综合分析教程" Scott M. Smith
•"Conjoint Predictions: 15 Year Later," a follow-up on the 1972 article "Condominium Design and Pricing: A Case Study in Consumer Trade-off Analysis" by John A. Fiedler
“综合预测:15年以后,“后来1972年的文章”公寓的设计和定价:客户交易案例研究分析” John A. Fiedler
•"Boost Your Marketing ROI with Experimental Design" by Eric Almquist and Gordon Wyner
“用实验设计提高市场利润率ROI” Eric Almquist 和Gordon Wyner
About the Author: Alastair Muir is president of Muir & Associates Consulting. He became the principal Six Sigma consultant for GE Power Systems in 1997 and has worked with thousands of quality professionals, from the CEO level to hourly staff, for Fortune 500 clients. Dr. Muir, who lives in Calgary, Canada, has several degrees, including a doctorate. He is the author of a new book, Lean Six Sigma Statistics, about the integration of Lean manufacturing and Six Sigma in the transactional environment. He may be reached through his office.
关于作者:阿拉斯泰尔Muir是Muir & Associates Consulting主席。他1997年成为GE电力系统六西格玛顾问校长,并帮助过多家财富500强企业从首席执行官到小时工成千上万的质量人才。Muir博士居住在加拿大卡尔加里,拥有包括博士学位的众多头衔。他在办公室写了一本关于整合精益生产和六西格玛商贸的新书，精益六西格玛统计。
请对以下文章有校对兴趣的组员留下你的预计完成时间，并发短信息或者邮箱mailto:xbH@6sq.net**联系小编H，以便小编登记校对者信息以及文章最终完成时的奖惩工作。
PS：请把您的邮箱地址通过短信息发给小编，原文有大量图片，以便发送文档校对~~
**本文由yzz完成翻译：
第十九篇 Design of Experiments/Conjoint Analysis in Marketing
试验设计/市场综合分析
DOE, known in marketing as conjoint analysis, is a powerful statistical technique for seeing connections between a customer's decision-making process and a product or service. It allows a company insight into what a customer is influenced to buy. 众所周知， DOE是市场营销综合分析方面一个强大的统计技术，用于分析顾客决策过程和产品或服务之间的联系。借此深入了解客户，影响其购买。
By Alastair Muir 阿尔斯太尔
The application of Six Sigma to marketing should be the most obvious use in the world. Where else does there exist such a direct connection between the wants and needs of the customer and the products or services a company offers? However, at first glance, there would seem to be very little hard reliable data on the vital Xs that influence the process of making a decision to buy. This makes it appear that marketing projects, while good for the business, lack the statistical rigor associated with Six Sigma.
在世界上，六西格码应用到营销方面起到的作用是显而易见的。难道还有能够提供顾客需要需求和客户提供产品或服务之间的联系的公司吗?然而,乍一看,似乎没有什么可靠的数据明显地影响到客户的决定并购买。市场项目体现出，表面上生意兴隆,可缺少准确的6σ统计。
Of course, that is not true. Design of experiments (DOE), known in marketing literature as conjoint analysis, is the most powerful statistical technique for making the connection between the psychology of the customer's decision-making process and the product or service being offered. When applied well, it can allow a company to gain an almost psychic insight into the vital Xs influencing a customer's buying decision.
当然,那不是实际情况。试验设计（DOE）是市场营销综合分析方面一个强大的统计技术，用于分析顾客决策过程和产品或服务之间的联系。应用得当,公司会获得显著影响顾客购买的深层想法。
Marketing Problems
市场营销问题
In the end, the goal of marketing is to be able to predict the future market share, profitability or net sales for an offering. This will allow a company to:
最后,营销的目标是能预测并提供未来市场占有率、盈利或净销售额。这将有助于公司做到以下几点:
•Predict customer buying behavior
预测顾客的购买行为
•Increase customer retention
增加保留老顾客
•Determine the trade-off strategy during contract negotiations
在合同谈判中，确定销售策略
•Determine competitive pricing
制定有竞争力的价格
•Forecast sales
预测销售
•Manage brand equity
提升品牌价值
•Design product elements
得到产品设计基础
•Determine price sensitivity
确定价格敏感度
•Predict and minimize customer switch rates
预测并最大限度降低客户的换货率
•Determine best market position for new product introduction
确定推出新产品最佳的市场定位
•Predict and optimize response rates to advertising campaigns with respect to content construction and distribution channel mix.
预测并优化广告效果，如广告内容,综合销售渠道。
Figure 1: Relationship Between Xs, Ys and Customer's Decision
The Big Y and Unknown Xs
During the decision-making process, the customer will choose either to accept or reject a company's offering. There needs to be a way of determining the relationship between the factors in the customer's head and the final decision. It is a bit difficult because the customer will usually be unaware of the complex psychological processes going on behind their own decision-making process. An acceptable fallback position is to develop a predictive model involving observable characteristics of the offering (Figure 1
顾客在决策的过程中,要么接受公司产品，要么拒绝。我们需要想方设法确定顾客在开始的想法和最后决定之间的关系。这可能有点难度,因为顾客在后来的决定过程中心理过程错综复杂，也不容易被扑捉到。一个可靠的方案是开发一种预测模型，使顾客想法可视化(图1
Businesses frequently make the mistake of assuming that customers make decisions based on the same criteria that they usually do - cost. Customers make decisions based on value - a complex interplay of sociological and psychological factors. As an example, would someone consider paying an extra $10 per month in taxes to support a youth-oriented, non-profit recycling program in their neighborhood? Clearly, the most cost-effective solution would be to reject the tax, but a person might consider paying for a variety of reasons. This separation of critical-to-quality elements (CTQs) for the internal customer (cost) and external customer (value) will allow a company to determine the best offering to optimize both CTQs at the same time.
企业经常错误地认为顾客所作的决定的因素是价格,都像他们平常表现出来的那样。顾客的决定,都基于价值观- - -一个错综复杂的社会学和心理因素。举一个例子,有人愿意额外支付的10美元,以支持在他们社区建立一个每月面向年轻人的非营利性的物品回收计划吗?显然,最简单的答案是拒绝,但一个人可能会有各种各样的理由去做。这种将品质关键点(CTQs)分为内部客户(成本)和外部客户(价值)将让公司同时使内外顾客最大程度满意。
Six Sigma projects usually concentrate on only a single Y to simplify the analysis. Even though there is a complex mapping of Xs to Ys in the mind of the customer, here the focus will be on the single Y of the yes-or-no decision. This discrete measurement is not as useful as a quantitative measure, so data will be gathered to drive into the multiple Ys in the customer's head by asking them to make decisions given some carefully constructed choices. When this is done well, it will allow the derivation of a predictive model for the decision process.
六西格玛项目通常专注于只有一个输出的独立分析。虽然顾客从想法到决定是一个复杂的思维过程,答案归结为yes或no。定性评价不如定量评价,所以通过给他们一些详细的系统选择题，来了解他们内心的各种想法，并收集这些资料。这些做好后,就建立了一个决策过程的预测模型。
Rating Factors in Decision Making
Customers are poor at determining ratings on an absolute scale, but very good at making ratings based on a relative scale. When citizens in the recycling example above considered paying a $10 tax for a recycling program, they made the final choice based on a complex weighting of their present taxes, their finances, whether there were employment opportunities for youth in their community, their own position on reduction of household waste, and their social conscience. They balanced these factors against their confidence that $10 per month could be used to implement a workable program in their neighborhood. This was done in light of existing initiatives for youth employment and garbage collection. A customer's decision to accept or reject an offering is done in a similar complex and poorly understood process.
客户不善于定量评价,但非常善于模糊评价。在上面例子中，当市民在最后决定为废品回收支付10美元时会认真考虑，他们目前的收入和经济情况, 在他们的社区是否有青年就业机会,他们对减少家庭废弃物的态度和社会责任感。这些因素将左右他们的态度，每月10美金花在了一项他们社区的可行的计划。这是只为青年就业和垃圾回收的精心方案。一个顾客的接受与否是一个类似的复杂且未知的过程。
The conjoint study or DOE is conducted in stages similar to the phases of a DMAIC project. The final design and execution of the study depends on the stimulus construction, data collection, model type, measurement scale, statistical data analysis and model construction, and stimulus analysis. The example below is a fairly simple one to determine the value customers will assign to the functions of a cellular phone.
DOE综合研究在DMAIC项目中发挥着类似的作用。DMAIC阶段最终的设计和完成的各项研究取决于刺激措施的建设,数据收集模型、类型、测量精度,统计数据分析和模型分析,激励分析。下面的例子是一个相当简单,客户价值观体现到手机的功能上。
The marketing department's mission is to design a product placement for cell phone packages targeted at high school students nearing graduation. Consumers would like to have a package with the best value, the marketing department would like to design an advertising campaign which will convince consumers that the product will satisfy their needs. To keep this example simple, assume the customer base is a single, homogeneous group with a survey sample size of three, the design of the survey will have four factors at two levels each, and the design will have two replicates.
营销销部门的任务是设计一个手机软件包，客户定位为即将毕业高中学生。客户想要一个最好的软件包，市场部想设计一个广告宣传活动，让客户相信这个产品能满足他们的需求。例子简单化,假设客户群是唯一的，每组样本容量为3, 调查的项目将有四个因子，两种水平,重复两次。
Brainstorming Xs and Choosing Factor Levels
The selection of the Xs for this study can proceed using the brainstorming tools used in the DMAIC's Measure phase. Fishbone diagrams can be used to tabulate all the possible factors that the marketing department would like to investigate. The "effect" in the fishbone diagram should be "a buying decision." The project could be scoped to include the features of the offering or expanded to include elements of the form of the presentation. The number of factors should be limited to about a dozen. This can be done by rescoping the project, or conducting a short customer survey to determine the most important factors in making a buying decision. Xs
头脑风暴法讨论确定关键特性及其因子水平
在这一研究中可以用DMAIC的测量阶段中使用的头脑风暴法选定关键特性。用鱼骨图罗列出市场部要调研的所有可能项目。做鱼骨图的目的是“购买决定”。以此选中特性及其延伸特性。特性因子数量一般控制到十二个。可以通过这个过程圈定,或进行简单的顾客调查确定做出购买决定的最重要因素。
The levels used for each factor should be chosen to cover the range of realistic choices. The number of factors could be extended and the size of the study increased, but in this example only four will be used. The factors and levels are shown in Table
选择每一个因子水平的范围要符合实际。因子数量可以增大，研究范围可以增加,但下面这个例子只用了四个因子。因子及水平如表1所示。
Table 1: Factors and Levels
Factor High Low
Hardware Discount $150 with Three-Year Contract $100 with Two-Year Contract
Call Display None $5 per Month
Text Messaging 15 Cents per Message $10 per Month Unlimited
Multimedia Charges Five Free Mutimedia Attachments per Month,
75 Cents Thereafter 50-Cent Charge per Attachment
表1 因子及水平
因子 高 低
硬件折扣 约定三年150美元 约定两年100美元
来电显示 没有 每月5美元
短信 每条信息15美分 每月10美元,无上限
多媒体费用 每月5个免费的多媒体功能附件,
超过按 75美分 每个附件50美分
Collecting Data Via Card Sorting
通过整理评分卡收集数据
Customers must rate the features in some way. In this case, eight cards were constructed with lists of multiple configurations of options on each. The design was a Resolution IV, four-factor DOE with six replicates. The cards were given to customers and they were asked to sort them in decreasing order of preference. The highest-rated choice was assigned 1, while the lowest-rated choice was assigned 8 (Table 2 Customers could have been asked to rate each offering on a 10-point scale, but sorting the cards forces the customer to make complex tradeoffs and eliminates a large number of ties. The forced ranking from 1 to 8 increases the discrimination of the measurement. Each customer was asked to repeat the card sort. Data was entered into the worksheet of a statistical software application for analysis (Minitab, in this case
客户必须通过某种方式认定特性重要性。如此建立8张卡片，每张卡片列出是多种配置选项。设计方案是四个方面、重复六次。卡片发给顾客,他们按喜爱程度分类依次填写。评价最高的项目为1，评价最低的为8 (表2是要求用户按10级评价每个项目, 客户卡片分类并进行综合权衡以消除了诸多影响因素。强职从1排到8提高辨别率。要求每个客户重复填写这张排序卡片。数据填入Minitab工作表进行统计分析(如下)
Table 2: Configurations and Multiple Ratings
Configuration Hardware
Discount Call
Display Text
Messaging Multimedia
Attachments Rating
Terry Rating
Kim Rating
Pat
1 $150 with 3-Year Contract None 15c/Message 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 5, 5 6, 5 5, 6
2 $100 with 2-Year Contract None 15c/Message 50c/Attachment 6, 7 3, 6 6, 4
3 $150 with 3-Year Contract $5/Month 15c/Message 50c/Attachment 2, 4 2, 2 1, 1
4 $100 with 2-Year Contract $5/Month 15c/Message 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 1, 3 4, 1 2, 2
5 $150 with 3-Year Contract None $10/Month Unlimited 50c/Attachment 8, 6 8, 8 7, 7
6 $100 with 2-Year Contract None $10/Month Unlimited 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 7, 8 7, 7 8, 8
7 $150 with 3-Year Contract $5/Month $10/Month Unlimited 5 Free/Month, 75c Thereafter 3, 1 1, 3 3, 3
8 $100 with 2-Year Contract $5/Month $10/Month Unlimited 50c/Attachment 4, 2 5, 4 4, 5
表2:配置和多重评价
配置 硬件折扣 来电显示 文字短信 多媒体附件 Terry等级 Kim等级 Pat等级
1 约定三年150美元 没有 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 5, 5 6, 5 5, 6
2 约定两年100美元 没有 15美分/条 50美分/个 6, 7 3, 6 6, 4
3 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 50美分/个 2, 4 2, 2 1, 1
4 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 1, 3 4, 1 2, 2
5 约定三年150美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 8, 6 8, 8 7, 7
6 约定两年100美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 7, 8 7, 7 8, 8
7 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 3, 1 1, 3 3, 3
8 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 4, 2 5, 4 4, 5
Figure 2: Statistical Software Printout
Figure 3: Pareto Chart of the Standardized Effects
Analyzing Data/Interpreting Results
The analysis of variance (ANOVA) printout from Minitab (Figure 2) shows that this sample of customers would prefer to pay an extra $15 for call display and unlimited text messaging. A model using only these two factors explains about 80 percent of the variation in the survey data (Figure 3
数据分析/结果说明
从Minitab打印输出方差分析(ANOVA) (图2)表明,该款手机的消费者将更愿意花15美元用于额外来电显示和无限的短信。这两个因子的模型解释, 只使用了问卷调查中大约80%的数据, (图3
The sample was composed of customers whose cell phone was their primary telephone and was always turned on. When the analysis was finished, the customers who took the survey were interviewed, resulting in the following findings:
客户的电话样品都是他们的日用电话,并且一直开机。当分析完成,询问了参加调查的顾客,发现以下情况:
•Call display (the highest-rated factor) was important in order to screen calls.
来电显示(得分最高的的因素)是很重要的,可以用来屏蔽来电。
•Text messaging was used in very noisy and in very quiet environments. These were usually dark places, requiring a well-lit, visible display.
在非常吵闹或非常安静的环境下发短信。这些通常是黑暗的地方,需要充足的亮度、能够看得见。
•The customers' usage patterns required a large number of messages and they were interested in a fixed cost for budgeting.
客户使用过程中需要大量的信息，并且他们更倾向于固定的费用预算。
•The interaction effect between hardware discount and multimedia charges was not significant. But the user group said their choice for multimedia plan option depended on the choice of cell phone hardware.
硬件折扣和多媒体之间的相互作用并不显著。但客户群说他们靠手机硬件选择多媒体功能。
•Users were more likely to incur extra charges associated with sending photographs and multimedia attachments when they considered buying a more expensive phone.
用户想买一部比较贵的电话,他们发送照片和使用多媒体等更容易产生额外费用。
•The more expensive phones were more attractive with the $150 discount.
比较昂贵的手机折扣150美元都更有吸引力。
•A selling opportunity for voice mail was identified.
识别出声音邮件是一个销售机遇。
Conclusions: Powerful Tool for Predicting Behavior
结论: 有效的预测工具
It was interesting that the survey provided insight into the customer behavior without having to ask detailed questions on features, usage patterns and usage types. It is a far more reliable and powerful technique than typical voice of the customer surveys. Conducting the survey took less than 30 seconds per trial.
有意思的是,这种调查能够用一定的方法和模式探索顾客的购买行为，无需询问细节。这是一个比传统的顾客需求调查更加可靠、更加有力的调查技术。整个调查不足30秒。
This is a fairly simple example, but it should illustrate the merits of further investigating the applications of DOE/conjoint analysis for Six Sigma projects in marketing. A quantitative predictive model that captures the customer decision-making process is a powerful marketing tool for predicting customer behavior.
这是一个很简单的例子,但它应该说明的优点等方面的应用进行深入的调查分析,DOE /密切联系销售中的六西格玛项目。抓住顾客的决策过程,定量预测模型,是一个预测客户的行为功能强大的营销工具。
Additional Resources Additional Resources
其他信息
•"VOC/Conjoint Analysis: Actionable Customer Segmenting" by Marco Folpmers
“顾客之声/综合分析:市场细分可行性“ Marco•Folpmers
•"Conjoint Analysis Tutorial" by Scott M. Smith
“综合分析教程" Scott M. Smith
•"Conjoint Predictions: 15 Year Later," a follow-up on the 1972 article "Condominium Design and Pricing: A Case Study in Consumer Trade-off Analysis" by John A. Fiedler
“综合预测:15年以后,“后来1972年的文章”公寓的设计和定价:客户交易案例研究分析” John A. Fiedler
•"Boost Your Marketing ROI with Experimental Design" by Eric Almquist and Gordon Wyner
“用实验设计提高市场利润率ROI” Eric Almquist 和Gordon Wyner
About the Author: Alastair Muir is president of Muir & Associates Consulting. He became the principal Six Sigma consultant for GE Power Systems in 1997 and has worked with thousands of quality professionals, from the CEO level to hourly staff, for Fortune 500 clients. Dr. Muir, who lives in Calgary, Canada, has several degrees, including a doctorate. He is the author of a new book, Lean Six Sigma Statistics, about the integration of Lean manufacturing and Six Sigma in the transactional environment. He may be reached through his office.
关于作者:阿拉斯泰尔Muir是Muir & Associates Consulting主席。他1997年成为GE电力系统六西格玛顾问校长,并帮助过多家财富500强企业从首席执行官到小时工成千上万的质量人才。Muir博士居住在加拿大卡尔加里,拥有包括博士学位的众多头衔。他在办公室写了一本关于整合精益生产和六西格玛商贸的新书，精益六西格玛统计。
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rambocao (威望:0) (广东 深圳) 电子制造 经理
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