第十九篇 Design of Experiments/Conjoint Analysis in Marketing
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**第十九篇 Design of Experiments/Conjoint Analysis in Marketing
第十九篇 在市场营销中的试验设计/综合分析**
DOE, known in marketing as conjoint analysis, is a powerful statistical technique for seeing connections between a customer's decision-making process and a product or service. It allows a company insight into what a customer is influenced to buy.。
----By Alastair Muir
众所周知， 在市场营销的综合分析方面，DOE是一个用于寻找顾客决策过程与产品或服务之间联系的强大的统计技术。通过DOE可使企业深入了解影响顾客购买的因素有哪些。
——阿尔斯太尔.缪尔
The application of Six Sigma to marketing should be the most obvious use in the world. Where else does there exist such a direct connection between the wants and needs of the customer and the products or services a company offers? However, at first glance, there would seem to be very little hard reliable data on the vital Xs that influence the process of making a decision to buy. This makes it appear that marketing projects, while good for the business, lack the statistical rigor associated with Six Sigma.
在世界范围内，六西格码在营销方面的应用是最显著的。在某些方面顾客的期望和需求与企业提供的产品与服务之间是否存在一种直接的联系呢？然而,乍一看,似乎没什么可靠的数据显示有重要因素会直接影响客户购买决策的过程。这就使得市场营销项目，表面对企业有利，但实际上与六西格玛之间缺乏严格的统计相关性。
Of course, that is not true. Design of experiments (DOE), known in marketing literature as conjoint analysis, is the most powerful statistical technique for making the connection between the psychology of the customer's decision-making process and the product or service being offered. When applied well, it can allow a company to gain an almost psychic insight into the vital Xs influencing a customer's buying decision.
当然,实际情况并非如此。试验设计（DOE）是市场营销综合分析方面的一个强大的统计技术，是用来确定顾客决策过程心理与给其提供的产品或服务之间的关系。当对其应用得当,企业会获得显著影响顾客购买决策的重要因素XS。
Marketing Problems
市场营销问题
In the end, the goal of marketing is to be able to predict the future market share, profitability or net sales for an offering. This will allow a company to:
最终,营销的目标是为企业预测未来的市场占有率、盈利或净销售额。这将有助于公司做到以下几点:
•Predict customer buying behavior
 预测顾客的购买行为
•Increase customer retention
 增加顾客保留率
•Determine the trade-off strategy during contract negotiations
 在合同谈判中，确定销售策略
•Determine competitive pricing
 制定有竞争力的价格
•Forecast sales
 预测销售
•Manage brand equity
 提升品牌价值
•Design product elements
 设计产品元素
•Determine price sensitivity
 确定价格敏感
•Predict and minimize customer switch rates
 预测并最大限度降低客户的换货率
•Determine best market position for new product introduction
 确定推出新产品的最佳市场定位
•Predict and optimize response rates to advertising campaigns with respect to content construction and distribution channel mix.
 预测并优化与内容建设和分销渠道组合相关的广告活动的反馈率
图1 因素Xs、Ys和顾客决策之间的关系
The Big Y and Unknown Xs
大因素Y和未知因素Xs
During the decision-making process, the customer will choose either to accept or reject a company's offering. There needs to be a way of determining the relationship between the factors in the customer's head and the final decision. It is a bit difficult because the customer will usually be unaware of the complex psychological processes going on behind their own decision-making process. An acceptable fallback position is to develop a predictive model involving observable characteristics of the offering (Figure 1
顾客在决策的过程中,要么接受一个公司的产品，要么拒绝。我们需要一种方设法来确定顾客头脑中的想法和最终决策之间的关系。这可能有点难度,因为顾客做出他们决策过程的背后有一系列不易差距的复杂心理过程。一个可靠的方案是开发一种预测模型，该模型包含将供给的特征可视化的。(图1)
Businesses frequently make the mistake of assuming that customers make decisions based on the same criteria that they usually do - cost. Customers make decisions based on value - a complex interplay of sociological and psychological factors. As an example, would someone consider paying an extra $10 per month in taxes to support a youth-oriented, non-profit recycling program in their neighborhood? Clearly, the most cost-effective solution would be to reject the tax, but a person might consider paying for a variety of reasons. This separation of critical-to-quality elements (CTQs) for the internal customer (cost) and external customer (value) will allow a company to determine the best offering to optimize both CTQs at the same time.
企业经常错误地认为顾客所作的决定都是基于相同的标准——价格,就像他们通常表现出来的那样。然而顾客的决定是基于价值，是一个社会学和心理因素相互作用的综合体。例如：是否有人愿意每月额外支付10美元的税,去支持在他们社区建立一个面向年轻人的非营利性的物品回收项目呢? 显然,最具有成本效益的解决方案是拒绝支付这笔税费，然而某些人却可能会因为各种各样的原因而愿意支付。这种将关键品质点(CTQs)分为内部客户(成本)和外部客户(价值)的方法，将会让公司可以做出最好的供给来同时最大化内外顾客的关键品质点。
Six Sigma projects usually concentrate on only a single Y to simplify the analysis. Even though there is a complex mapping of Xs to Ys in the mind of the customer, here the focus will be on the single Y of the yes-or-no decision. This discrete measurement is not as useful as a quantitative measure, so data will be gathered to drive into the multiple Ys in the customer's head by asking them to make decisions given some carefully constructed choices. When this is done well, it will allow the derivation of a predictive model for the decision process.
为了简化分析，六西格玛项目通常只专注于一个独立因素Y。虽然顾客从想法到决定是一个复杂的包含多个Xs和Ys的思维过程，但在这里只关注在单一因素Y，即是或否的决策上。由于离散的测量不如定量分析那样有效，因此数据的收集方式，是通过将顾客的想法变成多项因素Ys，然后通过询问方式让他们在一些给定的仔细预设的选项中做出决策。当很好的完成以上的数据收集后，就可以推导出一个有关决策过程的预测模型。
Rating Factors in Decision Making
决策过程的评价因素
Customers are poor at determining ratings on an absolute scale, but very good at making ratings based on a relative scale. When citizens in the recycling example above considered paying a $10 tax for a recycling program, they made the final choice based on a complex weighting of their present taxes, their finances, whether there were employment opportunities for youth in their community, their own position on reduction of household waste, and their social conscience. They balanced these factors against their confidence that $10 per month could be used to implement a workable program in their neighborhood. This was done in light of existing initiatives for youth employment and garbage collection. A customer's decision to accept or reject an offering is done in a similar complex and poorly understood process.
顾客在绝对水平上是不善于评级的，但却非常擅长于在相对水平评定级别。在上面的回收项目的例子中，当社区的居民考虑是否要为废品回收项目支付10美元的税时，他们最终的选择是基于综合考虑了现在的税费水平、他们的财务状况、以及在他们的社区是否有青年就业的机会, 他们对减少家庭废弃物的态度和他们的社会责任感等。他们将这些因素与对每月支付10美元后就可能在社区里建立一个有效可行项目的信心进行平衡。这会基于为青年就业和垃圾回收的现有措施而完成。一个顾客的接受与拒绝某中产品供应的决策过程就在在类似的复杂和知之甚少的过程中完成了。
The conjoint study or DOE is conducted in stages similar to the phases of a DMAIC project. The final design and execution of the study depends on the stimulus construction, data collection, model type, measurement scale, statistical data analysis and model construction, and stimulus analysis. The example below is a fairly simple one to determine the value customers will assign to the functions of a cellular phone.
对DOE的联合分析研究是分阶段进行的，非常类似于DMAIC项目的过程。对这些研究的最终设计和执行都取决于激励建设、数据收集、模型类型、测量水平、统计数据分析和模型建设和激励分析等。下面的这个例子是一个非常简单的顾客判决产品的价值会分配到移动电话的功能上。
The marketing department's mission is to design a product placement for cell phone packages targeted at high school students nearing graduation. Consumers would like to have a package with the best value, the marketing department would like to design an advertising campaign which will convince consumers that the product will satisfy their needs. To keep this example simple, assume the customer base is a single, homogeneous group with a survey sample size of three, the design of the survey will have four factors at two levels each, and the design will have two replicates.
营销销部门的任务是设计一个针对即将毕业的高中学生的移动电话产品的软件包。客户想要一个最有价值的软件包，市场部想设计一个广告宣传活动，让客户相信这个产品能满足他们的需求。为保证例子简单化,假设客户群是唯一的，每组的调查样本量为3, 设计的调查中含有两个水平，每个水平下有四个因子，每份设计都重复两次。
Brainstorming Xs and Choosing Factor Levels
头脑风暴法确定特性Xs及选择因子水平
The selection of the Xs for this study can proceed using the brainstorming tools used in the DMAIC's Measure phase. Fishbone diagrams can be used to tabulate all the possible factors that the marketing department would like to investigate. The "effect" in the fishbone diagram should be "a buying decision." The project could be scoped to include the features of the offering or expanded to include elements of the form of the presentation. The number of factors should be limited to about a dozen. This can be done by rescoping the project, or conducting a short customer survey to determine the most important factors in making a buying decision. Xs
在这项研究中选择因素Xs可以采在DMAIC的测量过程中使用的头脑风暴工具。鱼骨图可以用来罗列出市场部想要调研的所有可能因子。鱼骨图中的“结果”应该是“一个购买决策”。以此选中特性及其延伸特性。特性因子数量一般控制到十二个。可以通过这个过程圈定,或进行简单的顾客调查确定做出购买决定的最重要因素Xs。
The levels used for each factor should be chosen to cover the range of realistic choices. The number of factors could be extended and the size of the study increased, but in this example only four will be used. The factors and levels are shown in Table
每一个因子水平的范围要符合实际的选择。因子数量可以增大，研究的范围也就增大了,但在下面这个例子只用了四个因子。因子及水平如表1所示。
表1 因子和水平
因子 高 低
硬件折扣 约定三年150美元 约定两年100美元
来电显示 没有 每月5美元
短信 每条信息15美分 每月10美元,无上限
多媒体费用 每月5个免费的多媒体功能附件,
超过按 75美分 每个附件50美分
Collecting Data Via Card Sorting通过整理评分卡收集数据
Customers must rate the features in some way. In this case, eight cards were constructed with lists of multiple configurations of options on each. The design was a Resolution IV, four-factor DOE with six replicates. The cards were given to customers and they were asked to sort them in decreasing order of preference. The highest-rated choice was assigned 1, while the lowest-rated choice was assigned 8 (Table 2 Customers could have been asked to rate each offering on a 10-point scale, but sorting the cards forces the customer to make complex tradeoffs and eliminates a large number of ties. The forced ranking from 1 to 8 increases the discrimination of the measurement. Each customer was asked to repeat the card sort. Data was entered into the worksheet of a statistical software application for analysis (Minitab, in this case
顾客必须通过某种方式来评价特性。如在某些情况下,建立8张卡片，每张卡片列出是多种配置选项。设计方案是一个四项的决议,采用的是包含四个因子的DOE,每项重复六次。卡片被分发给顾客,并要求他们按喜爱程度将这些卡片进行降序排列。获得最高评价的选项被定为1号，相应的获得最低评价的为8号 (表2 顾客被要求按10级对每个供应配置进行评价, 但是对卡片进行排序，就迫使顾客进行了复杂的权衡和消除诸多的影响因素。这种强迫的进行1到8的排序就增加了测量之间的分辨率。每个客户都被要求重复地对这些卡片进行排序。数据被填入一个用作分析的统计应用软件的工作表中（此例中使用的是Minitab）。
表2:配置和多项评级
配置 硬件折扣 来电显示 文字短信 多媒体附件 Terry评级 KIM评级 Pat
评级
1 约定三年150美元 没有 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 5, 5 6, 5 5, 6
2 约定两年100美元 没有 15美分/条 50美分/个 6, 7 3, 6 6, 4
3 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 50美分/个 2, 4 2, 2 1, 1
4 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 1, 3 4, 1 2, 2
5 约定三年150美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 8, 6 8, 8 7, 7
6 约定两年100美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 7, 8 7, 7 8, 8
7 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 3, 1 1, 3 3, 3
8 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 4, 2 5, 4 4, 5
图2 统计软件的输出
Analyzing Data/Interpreting Results
数据分析/结果说明
The analysis of variance (ANOVA) printout from Minitab (Figure 2) shows that this sample of customers would prefer to pay an extra $15 for call display and unlimited text messaging. A model using only these two factors explains about 80 percent of the variation in the survey data (Figure 3
从Minitab中打印输出的方差分析(ANOVA) (图2)结果表明,该款手机的消费者更愿意额外花15美元用于来电显示和无上限的短信。一个只使用了这两个因子的模型可以解释遮盖调查数据中80%的变异。 (如图3所
The sample was composed of customers whose cell phone was their primary telephone and was always turned on. When the analysis was finished, the customers who took the survey were interviewed, resulting in the following findings:
构成样本的顾客的手机都是他们自己的最常用电话,并且这些电话被要求一直处于开机状态。当这个分析完成后,再次访问了参加这项调查的顾客，并发现了以下情况:
•Call display (the highest-rated factor) was important in order to screen calls.
 来电显示(获得最高评价的因素)是很重要的,可以用来屏蔽来电。
•Text messaging was used in very noisy and in very quiet environments. These were usually dark places, requiring a well-lit, visible display.
 短信一般是在非常吵闹或非常安静的环境下使用。那些环境通常是黑暗的地方,需要充足的亮度、清晰的显示。
•The customers' usage patterns required a large number of messages and they were interested in a fixed cost for budgeting.
 顾客的使用模式需要大量的信息，并且他们更倾向于固定的费用预算。
•The interaction effect between hardware discount and multimedia charges was not significant. But the user group said their choice for multimedia plan option depended on the choice of cell phone hardware.
 硬件折扣和多媒体附件之间的相互作用并不显著。但客户群说他们依靠手机的硬件来选择多媒体功能。
•Users were more likely to incur extra charges associated with sending photographs and multimedia attachments when they considered buying a more expensive phone.
 通常用户认为购买了一部比较贵的电话时，他们更容易将产生的额外费用与发送照片和使用多媒体联系起来。
•The more expensive phones were more attractive with the $150 discount.
 比较昂贵的手机折扣150美元时更有吸引力。
•A selling opportunity for voice mail was identified.
 能够识别语音邮件被作为是一个销售卖点。
Conclusions: Powerful Tool for Predicting Behavior
结论:预测行为的有力工具
It was interesting that the survey provided insight into the customer behavior without having to ask detailed questions on features, usage patterns and usage types. It is a far more reliable and powerful technique than typical voice of the customer surveys. Conducting the survey took less than 30 seconds per trial.
有意思的是,这种调查，无需通过针对特征、使用模式和使用类型等问具体的问题，就能够洞悉顾客的购买行为，这是一个比传统的顾客需求调查更加可信、更加有力的调查技术。进行每个调查只用花不足30秒。
This is a fairly simple example, but it should illustrate the merits of further investigating the applications of DOE/conjoint analysis for Six Sigma projects in marketing. A quantitative predictive model that captures the customer decision-making process is a powerful marketing tool for predicting customer behavior.
这是一个很简单的例子,但它应该能说明，在市场营销的六西格玛项目中，进一步研究DOE/联合分析应用的优点。抓住顾客决策过程的定量预测模型,是一个预测客户行为的功能强大的营销工具。
Additional Resources Additional Resources
其他资源
•"VOC/Conjoint Analysis: Actionable Customer Segmenting" by Marco Folpmers
 “顾客之声/综合分析:可操作的顾客细分“ 作者：Marco•Folpmers
•"Conjoint Analysis Tutorial" by Scott M. Smith
 “综合分析教程" 作者： Scott M. Smit
•"Conjoint Predictions: 15 Year Later," a follow-up on the 1972 article "Condominium Design and Pricing: A Case Study in Consumer Trade-off Analysis" by John A. Fiedler
 “综合预测:15年以后,“ 一个追踪1972年文章”公寓的设计和定价:客户交易案例分析研究”的文章。作者： John A. Fiedler
•"Boost Your Marketing ROI with Experimental Design" by Eric Almquist and Gordon Wyner
 “用实验设计提高你的市场利润率ROI” 作者： Eric Almquist 和Gordon Wyner
About the Author: Alastair Muir is president of Muir & Associates Consulting. He became the principal Six Sigma consultant for GE Power Systems in 1997 and has worked with thousands of quality professionals, from the CEO level to hourly staff, for Fortune 500 clients. Dr. Muir, who lives in Calgary, Canada, has several degrees, including a doctorate. He is the author of a new book, Lean Six Sigma Statistics, about the integration of Lean manufacturing and Six Sigma in the transactional environment. He may be reached through his office.
关于作者:阿拉斯泰尔.缪尔（Alastair Muir）是Muir & Associates Consulting的主席。他1997年成为GE能源系统的六西格玛顾问校长,和来自财富500强企业的从首席执行官水平到小时工，总计成千上万的质量专业人士一起工作过。缪尔博士居住在加拿大卡尔加里,拥有包括博士学位的众多头衔。他是《精益六西格玛统计学》这本新书的作者。这本书是有关在传统环境中整合精益生产和六西格玛的。
**大家好，我是小编H。组员们对第十九篇文章翻译有什么意见或者建议，请跟帖回复讨论，以便对文章翻译进行最后的确认
本文由yzz完成翻译：校稿：qxh622 **
**第十九篇 Design of Experiments/Conjoint Analysis in Marketing
第十九篇 在市场营销中的试验设计/综合分析**
DOE, known in marketing as conjoint analysis, is a powerful statistical technique for seeing connections between a customer's decision-making process and a product or service. It allows a company insight into what a customer is influenced to buy.。
----By Alastair Muir
众所周知， 在市场营销的综合分析方面，DOE是一个用于寻找顾客决策过程与产品或服务之间联系的强大的统计技术。通过DOE可使企业深入了解影响顾客购买的因素有哪些。
——阿尔斯太尔.缪尔
The application of Six Sigma to marketing should be the most obvious use in the world. Where else does there exist such a direct connection between the wants and needs of the customer and the products or services a company offers? However, at first glance, there would seem to be very little hard reliable data on the vital Xs that influence the process of making a decision to buy. This makes it appear that marketing projects, while good for the business, lack the statistical rigor associated with Six Sigma.
在世界范围内，六西格码在营销方面的应用是最显著的。在某些方面顾客的期望和需求与企业提供的产品与服务之间是否存在一种直接的联系呢？然而,乍一看,似乎没什么可靠的数据显示有重要因素会直接影响客户购买决策的过程。这就使得市场营销项目，表面对企业有利，但实际上与六西格玛之间缺乏严格的统计相关性。
Of course, that is not true. Design of experiments (DOE), known in marketing literature as conjoint analysis, is the most powerful statistical technique for making the connection between the psychology of the customer's decision-making process and the product or service being offered. When applied well, it can allow a company to gain an almost psychic insight into the vital Xs influencing a customer's buying decision.
当然,实际情况并非如此。试验设计（DOE）是市场营销综合分析方面的一个强大的统计技术，是用来确定顾客决策过程心理与给其提供的产品或服务之间的关系。当对其应用得当,企业会获得显著影响顾客购买决策的重要因素XS。
Marketing Problems
市场营销问题
In the end, the goal of marketing is to be able to predict the future market share, profitability or net sales for an offering. This will allow a company to:
最终,营销的目标是为企业预测未来的市场占有率、盈利或净销售额。这将有助于公司做到以下几点:
•Predict customer buying behavior
 预测顾客的购买行为
•Increase customer retention
 增加顾客保留率
•Determine the trade-off strategy during contract negotiations
 在合同谈判中，确定销售策略
•Determine competitive pricing
 制定有竞争力的价格
•Forecast sales
 预测销售
•Manage brand equity
 提升品牌价值
•Design product elements
 设计产品元素
•Determine price sensitivity
 确定价格敏感
•Predict and minimize customer switch rates
 预测并最大限度降低客户的换货率
•Determine best market position for new product introduction
 确定推出新产品的最佳市场定位
•Predict and optimize response rates to advertising campaigns with respect to content construction and distribution channel mix.
 预测并优化与内容建设和分销渠道组合相关的广告活动的反馈率
图1 因素Xs、Ys和顾客决策之间的关系
The Big Y and Unknown Xs
大因素Y和未知因素Xs
During the decision-making process, the customer will choose either to accept or reject a company's offering. There needs to be a way of determining the relationship between the factors in the customer's head and the final decision. It is a bit difficult because the customer will usually be unaware of the complex psychological processes going on behind their own decision-making process. An acceptable fallback position is to develop a predictive model involving observable characteristics of the offering (Figure 1
顾客在决策的过程中,要么接受一个公司的产品，要么拒绝。我们需要一种方设法来确定顾客头脑中的想法和最终决策之间的关系。这可能有点难度,因为顾客做出他们决策过程的背后有一系列不易差距的复杂心理过程。一个可靠的方案是开发一种预测模型，该模型包含将供给的特征可视化的。(图1)
Businesses frequently make the mistake of assuming that customers make decisions based on the same criteria that they usually do - cost. Customers make decisions based on value - a complex interplay of sociological and psychological factors. As an example, would someone consider paying an extra $10 per month in taxes to support a youth-oriented, non-profit recycling program in their neighborhood? Clearly, the most cost-effective solution would be to reject the tax, but a person might consider paying for a variety of reasons. This separation of critical-to-quality elements (CTQs) for the internal customer (cost) and external customer (value) will allow a company to determine the best offering to optimize both CTQs at the same time.
企业经常错误地认为顾客所作的决定都是基于相同的标准——价格,就像他们通常表现出来的那样。然而顾客的决定是基于价值，是一个社会学和心理因素相互作用的综合体。例如：是否有人愿意每月额外支付10美元的税,去支持在他们社区建立一个面向年轻人的非营利性的物品回收项目呢? 显然,最具有成本效益的解决方案是拒绝支付这笔税费，然而某些人却可能会因为各种各样的原因而愿意支付。这种将关键品质点(CTQs)分为内部客户(成本)和外部客户(价值)的方法，将会让公司可以做出最好的供给来同时最大化内外顾客的关键品质点。
Six Sigma projects usually concentrate on only a single Y to simplify the analysis. Even though there is a complex mapping of Xs to Ys in the mind of the customer, here the focus will be on the single Y of the yes-or-no decision. This discrete measurement is not as useful as a quantitative measure, so data will be gathered to drive into the multiple Ys in the customer's head by asking them to make decisions given some carefully constructed choices. When this is done well, it will allow the derivation of a predictive model for the decision process.
为了简化分析，六西格玛项目通常只专注于一个独立因素Y。虽然顾客从想法到决定是一个复杂的包含多个Xs和Ys的思维过程，但在这里只关注在单一因素Y，即是或否的决策上。由于离散的测量不如定量分析那样有效，因此数据的收集方式，是通过将顾客的想法变成多项因素Ys，然后通过询问方式让他们在一些给定的仔细预设的选项中做出决策。当很好的完成以上的数据收集后，就可以推导出一个有关决策过程的预测模型。
Rating Factors in Decision Making
决策过程的评价因素
Customers are poor at determining ratings on an absolute scale, but very good at making ratings based on a relative scale. When citizens in the recycling example above considered paying a $10 tax for a recycling program, they made the final choice based on a complex weighting of their present taxes, their finances, whether there were employment opportunities for youth in their community, their own position on reduction of household waste, and their social conscience. They balanced these factors against their confidence that $10 per month could be used to implement a workable program in their neighborhood. This was done in light of existing initiatives for youth employment and garbage collection. A customer's decision to accept or reject an offering is done in a similar complex and poorly understood process.
顾客在绝对水平上是不善于评级的，但却非常擅长于在相对水平评定级别。在上面的回收项目的例子中，当社区的居民考虑是否要为废品回收项目支付10美元的税时，他们最终的选择是基于综合考虑了现在的税费水平、他们的财务状况、以及在他们的社区是否有青年就业的机会, 他们对减少家庭废弃物的态度和他们的社会责任感等。他们将这些因素与对每月支付10美元后就可能在社区里建立一个有效可行项目的信心进行平衡。这会基于为青年就业和垃圾回收的现有措施而完成。一个顾客的接受与拒绝某中产品供应的决策过程就在在类似的复杂和知之甚少的过程中完成了。
The conjoint study or DOE is conducted in stages similar to the phases of a DMAIC project. The final design and execution of the study depends on the stimulus construction, data collection, model type, measurement scale, statistical data analysis and model construction, and stimulus analysis. The example below is a fairly simple one to determine the value customers will assign to the functions of a cellular phone.
对DOE的联合分析研究是分阶段进行的，非常类似于DMAIC项目的过程。对这些研究的最终设计和执行都取决于激励建设、数据收集、模型类型、测量水平、统计数据分析和模型建设和激励分析等。下面的这个例子是一个非常简单的顾客判决产品的价值会分配到移动电话的功能上。
The marketing department's mission is to design a product placement for cell phone packages targeted at high school students nearing graduation. Consumers would like to have a package with the best value, the marketing department would like to design an advertising campaign which will convince consumers that the product will satisfy their needs. To keep this example simple, assume the customer base is a single, homogeneous group with a survey sample size of three, the design of the survey will have four factors at two levels each, and the design will have two replicates.
营销销部门的任务是设计一个针对即将毕业的高中学生的移动电话产品的软件包。客户想要一个最有价值的软件包，市场部想设计一个广告宣传活动，让客户相信这个产品能满足他们的需求。为保证例子简单化,假设客户群是唯一的，每组的调查样本量为3, 设计的调查中含有两个水平，每个水平下有四个因子，每份设计都重复两次。
Brainstorming Xs and Choosing Factor Levels
头脑风暴法确定特性Xs及选择因子水平
The selection of the Xs for this study can proceed using the brainstorming tools used in the DMAIC's Measure phase. Fishbone diagrams can be used to tabulate all the possible factors that the marketing department would like to investigate. The "effect" in the fishbone diagram should be "a buying decision." The project could be scoped to include the features of the offering or expanded to include elements of the form of the presentation. The number of factors should be limited to about a dozen. This can be done by rescoping the project, or conducting a short customer survey to determine the most important factors in making a buying decision. Xs
在这项研究中选择因素Xs可以采在DMAIC的测量过程中使用的头脑风暴工具。鱼骨图可以用来罗列出市场部想要调研的所有可能因子。鱼骨图中的“结果”应该是“一个购买决策”。以此选中特性及其延伸特性。特性因子数量一般控制到十二个。可以通过这个过程圈定,或进行简单的顾客调查确定做出购买决定的最重要因素Xs。
The levels used for each factor should be chosen to cover the range of realistic choices. The number of factors could be extended and the size of the study increased, but in this example only four will be used. The factors and levels are shown in Table
每一个因子水平的范围要符合实际的选择。因子数量可以增大，研究的范围也就增大了,但在下面这个例子只用了四个因子。因子及水平如表1所示。
表1 因子和水平
因子 高 低
硬件折扣 约定三年150美元 约定两年100美元
来电显示 没有 每月5美元
短信 每条信息15美分 每月10美元,无上限
多媒体费用 每月5个免费的多媒体功能附件,
超过按 75美分 每个附件50美分
Collecting Data Via Card Sorting通过整理评分卡收集数据
Customers must rate the features in some way. In this case, eight cards were constructed with lists of multiple configurations of options on each. The design was a Resolution IV, four-factor DOE with six replicates. The cards were given to customers and they were asked to sort them in decreasing order of preference. The highest-rated choice was assigned 1, while the lowest-rated choice was assigned 8 (Table 2 Customers could have been asked to rate each offering on a 10-point scale, but sorting the cards forces the customer to make complex tradeoffs and eliminates a large number of ties. The forced ranking from 1 to 8 increases the discrimination of the measurement. Each customer was asked to repeat the card sort. Data was entered into the worksheet of a statistical software application for analysis (Minitab, in this case
顾客必须通过某种方式来评价特性。如在某些情况下,建立8张卡片，每张卡片列出是多种配置选项。设计方案是一个四项的决议,采用的是包含四个因子的DOE,每项重复六次。卡片被分发给顾客,并要求他们按喜爱程度将这些卡片进行降序排列。获得最高评价的选项被定为1号，相应的获得最低评价的为8号 (表2 顾客被要求按10级对每个供应配置进行评价, 但是对卡片进行排序，就迫使顾客进行了复杂的权衡和消除诸多的影响因素。这种强迫的进行1到8的排序就增加了测量之间的分辨率。每个客户都被要求重复地对这些卡片进行排序。数据被填入一个用作分析的统计应用软件的工作表中（此例中使用的是Minitab）。
表2:配置和多项评级
配置 硬件折扣 来电显示 文字短信 多媒体附件 Terry评级 KIM评级 Pat
评级
1 约定三年150美元 没有 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 5, 5 6, 5 5, 6
2 约定两年100美元 没有 15美分/条 50美分/个 6, 7 3, 6 6, 4
3 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 50美分/个 2, 4 2, 2 1, 1
4 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 15美分/条 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 1, 3 4, 1 2, 2
5 约定三年150美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 8, 6 8, 8 7, 7
6 约定两年100美元 没有 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 7, 8 7, 7 8, 8
7 约定三年150美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 每月免费5个，超过按75美分 3, 1 1, 3 3, 3
8 约定两年100美元 5美元/月 10美元/月不限量 50美分/个 4, 2 5, 4 4, 5
图2 统计软件的输出
Analyzing Data/Interpreting Results
数据分析/结果说明
The analysis of variance (ANOVA) printout from Minitab (Figure 2) shows that this sample of customers would prefer to pay an extra $15 for call display and unlimited text messaging. A model using only these two factors explains about 80 percent of the variation in the survey data (Figure 3
从Minitab中打印输出的方差分析(ANOVA) (图2)结果表明,该款手机的消费者更愿意额外花15美元用于来电显示和无上限的短信。一个只使用了这两个因子的模型可以解释遮盖调查数据中80%的变异。 (如图3所
The sample was composed of customers whose cell phone was their primary telephone and was always turned on. When the analysis was finished, the customers who took the survey were interviewed, resulting in the following findings:
构成样本的顾客的手机都是他们自己的最常用电话,并且这些电话被要求一直处于开机状态。当这个分析完成后,再次访问了参加这项调查的顾客，并发现了以下情况:
•Call display (the highest-rated factor) was important in order to screen calls.
 来电显示(获得最高评价的因素)是很重要的,可以用来屏蔽来电。
•Text messaging was used in very noisy and in very quiet environments. These were usually dark places, requiring a well-lit, visible display.
 短信一般是在非常吵闹或非常安静的环境下使用。那些环境通常是黑暗的地方,需要充足的亮度、清晰的显示。
•The customers' usage patterns required a large number of messages and they were interested in a fixed cost for budgeting.
 顾客的使用模式需要大量的信息，并且他们更倾向于固定的费用预算。
•The interaction effect between hardware discount and multimedia charges was not significant. But the user group said their choice for multimedia plan option depended on the choice of cell phone hardware.
 硬件折扣和多媒体附件之间的相互作用并不显著。但客户群说他们依靠手机的硬件来选择多媒体功能。
•Users were more likely to incur extra charges associated with sending photographs and multimedia attachments when they considered buying a more expensive phone.
 通常用户认为购买了一部比较贵的电话时，他们更容易将产生的额外费用与发送照片和使用多媒体联系起来。
•The more expensive phones were more attractive with the $150 discount.
 比较昂贵的手机折扣150美元时更有吸引力。
•A selling opportunity for voice mail was identified.
 能够识别语音邮件被作为是一个销售卖点。
Conclusions: Powerful Tool for Predicting Behavior
结论:预测行为的有力工具
It was interesting that the survey provided insight into the customer behavior without having to ask detailed questions on features, usage patterns and usage types. It is a far more reliable and powerful technique than typical voice of the customer surveys. Conducting the survey took less than 30 seconds per trial.
有意思的是,这种调查，无需通过针对特征、使用模式和使用类型等问具体的问题，就能够洞悉顾客的购买行为，这是一个比传统的顾客需求调查更加可信、更加有力的调查技术。进行每个调查只用花不足30秒。
This is a fairly simple example, but it should illustrate the merits of further investigating the applications of DOE/conjoint analysis for Six Sigma projects in marketing. A quantitative predictive model that captures the customer decision-making process is a powerful marketing tool for predicting customer behavior.
这是一个很简单的例子,但它应该能说明，在市场营销的六西格玛项目中，进一步研究DOE/联合分析应用的优点。抓住顾客决策过程的定量预测模型,是一个预测客户行为的功能强大的营销工具。
Additional Resources Additional Resources
其他资源
•"VOC/Conjoint Analysis: Actionable Customer Segmenting" by Marco Folpmers
 “顾客之声/综合分析:可操作的顾客细分“ 作者：Marco•Folpmers
•"Conjoint Analysis Tutorial" by Scott M. Smith
 “综合分析教程" 作者： Scott M. Smit
•"Conjoint Predictions: 15 Year Later," a follow-up on the 1972 article "Condominium Design and Pricing: A Case Study in Consumer Trade-off Analysis" by John A. Fiedler
 “综合预测:15年以后,“ 一个追踪1972年文章”公寓的设计和定价:客户交易案例分析研究”的文章。作者： John A. Fiedler
•"Boost Your Marketing ROI with Experimental Design" by Eric Almquist and Gordon Wyner
 “用实验设计提高你的市场利润率ROI” 作者： Eric Almquist 和Gordon Wyner
About the Author: Alastair Muir is president of Muir & Associates Consulting. He became the principal Six Sigma consultant for GE Power Systems in 1997 and has worked with thousands of quality professionals, from the CEO level to hourly staff, for Fortune 500 clients. Dr. Muir, who lives in Calgary, Canada, has several degrees, including a doctorate. He is the author of a new book, Lean Six Sigma Statistics, about the integration of Lean manufacturing and Six Sigma in the transactional environment. He may be reached through his office.
关于作者:阿拉斯泰尔.缪尔（Alastair Muir）是Muir & Associates Consulting的主席。他1997年成为GE能源系统的六西格玛顾问校长,和来自财富500强企业的从首席执行官水平到小时工，总计成千上万的质量专业人士一起工作过。缪尔博士居住在加拿大卡尔加里,拥有包括博士学位的众多头衔。他是《精益六西格玛统计学》这本新书的作者。这本书是有关在传统环境中整合精益生产和六西格玛的。
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The analysis of variance (ANOVA) printout from Minitab (Figure 2) shows that this sample of customers would prefer to pay an extra $15 for call display and unlimited text messaging. A model using only these two factors explains about 80 percent of the variation in the survey data (Figure 3
从Minitab中打印输出的方差分析(ANOVA) (图2)结果表明,该款手机的消费者更愿意额外花15美元用于来电显示和无上限的短信。一个只使用了这两个因子的模型可以解释遮盖调查数据中80%的变异。 (如图3所
从DOE的标准效应柏拉图以及因子评估结果中，可以看出显著的因子有两个，那么，这个两个因子占总的观测值变异的80%左右。所以不能用遮盖，应该这样翻译会比较合适一点。
仅这两个因子组成的模型的变异就占总的观测值变异的80%。(注意，在DOE中有一个步骤就优化模型，理论上是要除去不显著的因子后，看看总的模型是否还是显著，如果是显著，没有大的偏差，我可以认为删减过后的模型是有效地，这个过程就优化模型。这里的意思是想强调这两个因子的显著程度，你看这两个因子的变异占总变异的80%，显著不？显著。)